The £ continued to rally this week hitting new yearly highs. Indications still point towards further hikes through the first part of 2023. There are huge volumes of cheap Black Sea wheat flooding the market. The USDA report last week did lower global production for 22/23. Soya prices have settled following the report last week which reduced Argentina’s production by 7 MlnT in one hit! Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading. The caveat to prices moving lower is that material in the stores carries a cost and there will be a limit to how low shippers are prepared to go to move stock before it makes more sense to hold it.

The £ has reached new 6 month highs this week, hitting $1.23 before settling back down at $1.22. Wheat like most commodity markets this week has been all change! After falling a further £10 in the week, we are now up £8 from the bottom on the past 2 days! Currently, there is little demand for in Europe for our exportable surplus (at our prices) given that Ukrainian origin wheat that is being fed through Spain at a discounted rate. The real bullish factor to watch is still the maize story with dryness looking to continue across South America forcing growers to now look at planting later. Soya has seen a large spike this week driven by the Conab report which reduced Argentina’s crop size by 7 MlnT. Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading.

The £ has seen another strong week breaking through key resistance levels to break $1.20 and €1.16. Wheat continues on its downward trajectory although almost in a ‘false’ market. There is no consumer demand this side of Spring and most consumers are looking to roll contracts into January and February. Soya markets continue their downward trend with the US harvest now complete and plantings gaining traction in South America. Crude Oil is now down to its lowest levels since January. We continue to see organic prices moving lower as demand for organic materials in general begins to fall now and UK shippers are sat with full stores. Currency will also impact price to a point but it feels as though this is beginning to become a demand led pricing structure for the time being.

The market appears to have reacted well to the plan and the subsequent long term forecast on what that will do in terms of inflation figures with the £ strengthening against both the $ and €. The wheat market has felt very much on a downward trajectory. Prices are very much being driven by geo politics rather than crop fundamentals now and therefore heavily swayed by fund money. Soya markets, like wheat are on a downward trend now with spot UK vessel issues now resolved. The size of the expected South American crop on the cusp of a recession cannot be ignored with Brazil upping their estimates. We continue to see organic prices moving lower as demand for organic materials in general begins to fall now and UK shippers are sat with full stores. Currency will also impact price to a point but it feels as though this is beginning to become a demand led pricing structure for the time being. Recently, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory caught the Sun "smiling."

The £ continues to struggle and has broken historic lows. The intervention by the Bank of England to buy Government bonds as a way of the country raising capital is seen by the market as drastic measures. Wheat continues to move in extremely large, volatile patterns. Russia, on the back of a record crop, have said this week they would consider lifting export quotas for this season but how safe the grain corridor is now with escalation of bombing is a concern. Farm sales are slow but then there is no consumer buying now with compounders covered until January. Soya is steadily easing now as the US harvest progresses giving a long term bearish view. Organic cereal offers are beginning to come more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment.

Against the Euro, Sterling is above the all time low set after the Brexit vote. The Bank of England admitted this week that the country was now in a recession. This week has very much been a week of 2 halves where we have seen a trading range of £20 in 2 days on wheat futures. Corn is still holding a premium over wheat. Soya has firmed this week after initially opening lower, driven by Chinese purchases. Sunflower prices have turned and firmed slightly due to the uncertainty over the situation in Ukraine. Organic cereal offers are beginning to come more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment, supply seems more than adequate.

The £ continues to give little in either direction with the Bank of England’s pessimistic tone to long-term economic growth. Wheat has thrown up a surprise downturn this week. Prices had begun to push higher last week ahead of the USDA report. The Ukraine grain corridor is still the biggest unknown in the market with questions raised about just how much volume is likely to come to fruition. Soya has followed other markets and moved lower post report but perhaps for more strong fundamental reasons. Longer term we also have the highly anticipated large South American crops but as they are barely in the ground, it would be difficult to grasp onto that too much as a story! Organic cereal offers are beginning to be offered a little more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment, supply seems more than adequate.

The £ reached 2 month highs on back of interest rate rise. Warning that this will be short-lived due to forecasted recession pressure. Wheat markets look relatively flat this week. UK harvest 50% cut for wheat. Bushels at 80+ as an average, but protein lower due to early harvest start. UK wheat now competitive to European markets. First grain vessel left Odessa this week. Soya has rallied due to excessive heat in North America. EU has dropped sunflower projections over uncertainty of what will come out of the Black Sea. Organic prices remain stable.

The £ has seen relatively little movement over the past 2-3 weeks. Wheat markets have ended the week up £15, after initially falling back after the export deal between Ukraine and Russia was signed last week. France have cut their yields further this week owing to the excessive heat. It is apparent that this harvest window will be tight and the opportunity to buy near the bottom is not going to be as clear as hoped leading into harvest. The soya market had shown some signs of weakness as the US weather looks favourable for this pod development stage. Organic prices are slowly falling. Early indications from India are that the crops are looking good.

The £ continues to struggle and has reached 2 year lows this week against the $ and € with ongoing concerns around the impact of inflation and a recession could have on the UK markets. Wheat continues to look volatile, although still in a clear downward trend as we enter the harvest period. Harvests in Northern Europe and the US, the over all world S&D figures still look extremely tight for the coming year. For the UK, prices have ended the week on a rally (triggered by these large sales to Egypt), however, we are still a good £10 too expensive for exports against any European material. Soya still has this old crop/new crop story although Brazil has seen a drop this week. Organic prices are slowly falling. China is becoming increasingly unreliable to India will go back to being our main source for next season.

The £ continues to struggle to find any real support. Wheat continues its very clear downward trend this week. The USDA report this week was viewed very much as bearish. The world is still not awash with wheat and despite the UK having an exportable surplus. Soya still has this old crop/new crop story with Argentinian old crop premiums still holding until the US crop is further developed and close to coming to market. The planting story in the states so far is a positive one with good temperatures. Organic prices are slowly falling. Quarter 4 for this year is looking like our first opportunity in the past 12 months for prices to ease.

Currency unfortunately continues to move lower. Consumer confidence is now at a record low with inflation forecast to hit as high as 11% this winter. The wheat market has been in a very clear downward trend this week with fund holders now moving to net short positions for the first time since 2020! The message seems to be that the global balance sheet for wheat is still tight, but far from as bad as previously thought. For soya, US plantings are currently in line with their 5 year average planting pace. Organic prices are slowly falling this week for the first time in months. After months of uncertainty and wondering when markets would reach their peak as they continued to break records, it does feel that the last quarter of 2022 could begin to give some signs of pressure easing on feed prices.

Currency has had a relatively stable week with the vote of no confidence against Boris seemingly having little affect on the £. The wheat market continues to move in a volatile manner this week. Pre the Jubilee weekend, we saw sharp moves lower on the back of the humanitarian corridor for grain movement being discussed out of Ukraine. Soya prices now continue to be all about the US plantings story. The sunflower picture is also now beginning to ease with traders globally now having a better understanding of what stock is where, reducing some of that risk premium from the markets. We are beginning to see offers for both grains and protein for new crop.

Currency has seen a slightly better week. The sentiment against the £ is still bearish. The wheat market has been on a continued downward trend. This week we have also seen reversals on the Indian export ban. We also saw an example of the ‘war premiums’ built into this market. Soya is becoming an old crop/new crop story now. Soya Bean hit their highest ever value on Chicago. Sunflower markets continue to look difficult with more reliance on the much smaller Argentinian crop now. We are beginning to see offers for both grains and protein for new crop.

Currency continued to move lower this week. The UK is the world’s 5th biggest economy and it is becoming more apparent with inflation. Wheat markets hit new highs this week across the world. Ukraine reduced their production estimates for this season. Maize could be featuring more in rations this winter as it is currently trading at a discount to wheat. Soya markets rallied of their lows. The focus is now on US plantings. We are beginning to see offers for both grains and protein for new crop.