Currencies
The £ continues to struggle and has reached 2 year lows this week against the $ and € with ongoing concerns around the impact of inflation and a recession could have on the UK markets.
Surprisingly, the £ did actually gain strength following Boris Johnson’s resignation which perhaps shows how wider markets viewed his leadership.
Wheat
Wheat continues to look volatile, although still in a clear downward trend as we enter the harvest period. Although the market nearby is very much bearish, the longer term view is still bullish giving us this short term window to take on cover.
A lot of the downward pressure has come from harvest and funds which have been heavily invested, looking to take profit and move back to more traditional investment homes.
During a recession, the over all demand for food tends to be down so all food related markets suffer, not really attractive for fund money!
Despite better than expected harvests in Northern Europe and the US, the over all world S&D figures still look extremely tight for the coming year and that’s taking into account the already factored in grain which has been promised through the corridors agreed by Russia and Ukraine. If that is removed from the market, it would push prices higher.
There have been large new crop sales to Egypt this week of both French and US wheat supporting the longer term bullish view.
For the UK, prices have ended the week on a rally (triggered by these large sales to Egypt), however, we are still a good £10 too expensive for exports against any European material and with a potential 16 MlnT crop, traders will be keen to find export homes soon into the harvest period to sure up shipping programmes.
Soya
Soya still has this old crop/new crop story although Brazil has seen a drop this week of circa 1 MlnT in export figures last month against expected levels.
The soya market is a little all over the place at the moment while we wait to see how the crops establishes itself and what that could mean in terms of yield potential.
Organic
Organic prices are slowly falling, taking some of their lead from conventional markets. The divide between old and new crop appears to be narrowing the closer we get to October now with very little business being done until that next Autumn tranche.
It is too early to really call prices for proteins which are not due into the UK until January time but early indications from India are that the crops are looking good. China is becoming increasingly unreliable to India will go back to being our main source for next season.
Quarter 4 is still showing signs that it will be that much needed break from continued price rises that we have been seeing throughout the course of this year.
And Finally…
Time to Buy a Dinosaur?
Have you ever wanted to own a dinosaur? Now could be your chance, as the fossilised skeleton of an earlier relative of Tyrannosaurus Rex will be auctioned at Sotheby’s in New York on the 28th of July.
The Gorgosaurus was an apex carnivore that lived on the North American during the late Cretaceous Period. It pre-dated its relative the Tyrannosaurus Rex by 10 million years.
The other known Gorgosaurus skeletons are in museum collections around the world, so that this will be the only one that is available for private purchase.
The skeleton was discovered in 2018 in Montana.
It is available for a not insignicant guide price of between $5 and 8 mln!
Further enquiries can be made via the website https://www.sothebys.com/en/videos/a-ferocious-fossil-the-gorgosaurus
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
