Currencies
The £ has reached new 6 month highs this week, hitting $1.23 before settling back down at $1.22. The main reason for this rally though unfortunately has been $ weakness rather than any positive economic news for the UK.
Wheat
Wheat like most commodity markets this week has been all change! After falling a further £10 in the week, we are now up £8 from the bottom on the past 2 days! In truth there is little fresh fundamental news suggesting that this rally is triggered and led by speculative money, proving again how volatile and surprising these markets can be in the current climate.
Looking at the fundamentals, there is no real physical demand for wheat in the UK, with contracts being rolled (pushed forward) and the first true bids looking to be for March/April time. The AHDB Supply & Demand report last week showed that as expected, that there is a larger 2021 end of season carryout, increased production for 22 and when combined with little additional demand, it means that the UK has a large exportable surplus. Currently, there is little demand for in Europe for our exportable surplus (at our prices) given that Ukrainian origin wheat that is being fed through Spain at a discounted rate.
Australia’s harvest has proven better than expected with good volumes of both wheat and rapeseed but quality could be an issue due to the excessive rain they had late in the season. The real bullish factor to watch is still the maize story with dryness looking to continue across South America forcing growers to now look at planting later, lower yielding varieties. If China do continue to increase their demand as Covid restrictions ease, this could mean more pressure on wheat numbers.
Soya
Soya has seen a large spike this week driven by the Conab report which reduced Argentina’s crop size by 7 MlnT (20% of their expected figure). This would push volumes down below 40 MlnT and perhaps as low as 35 MlnT.
There is adequate supply from the good US season and Brazil have also continued to report a figure close to 152 MlnT, but, this had been factored into the market so if we do see an increase in demand from China, markets will undoubtably react. This week so far we have seen soya prices up by circa £30 per tonne.
Organic
Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading. Again, shippers and compounders have huge stocks because of the downturn we have already seen in volume which is making pricing almost a paper exercise. The caveat to prices moving lower is that material in the stores carries a cost and there will be a limit to how low shippers are prepared to go to move stock before it makes more sense to hold it.
And Finally…
Dyson's Zone headphones – with air purifier!?
Sir James Dyson is a remarkable designer, who over his career has moved from the original wheelbarrow with a ball (yes, I had one!) through to the most expensive hairdryers on the market (no, I do not have one of those!), and built up a cult following of devoted consumers, as well as one of the largest portfolio of agricultural holdings in the UK.
His ingenuity is beyond question, but has the company famed for its cyclone vacuum cleaners gone a step too far this time?
Dyson has released its Zone headphones, which not only have the usual must haves of noise cancelling technology, but also boast an air purifier! Who would have thought of combining an air purifier with headphones? Perhaps there is a market for my portable toaster designed for bicycles?
The headphones cost a bargain figure of £749.
The problem is that the device looks to be a little bit limiting, at a personal level:
The trouble is, it just reminds me of Tom Hardy’s outfit, as Bane, in Batman’s The Dark Knight Rises
You never, know these headphones/air purifiers, are bound to be impressive from a technical perspective, and may sell well in Asia where mask wearing is more an established part of modern culture.
More information at: https://www.dyson.co.uk/headphones/zone/announcement
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
