Currencies

The £ continues to struggle and has broken historic lows, now dipping regularly below the $1.10 level which a few weeks ago was seen as a pessimistic view of the future.

The intervention by the Bank of England to buy Government bonds as a way of the country raising capital is seen by the market as drastic measures and the fact that one of the biggest financial organisations, Credit Suisse, maxed out trade of their CCD’s (a way of traders protecting their unfavourable positions), does not bode well for the long term view of the £.

Moving to our fourth Chancellor of the Exchequer in 4 months seems to have initially perked up Sterling on international markets. Lets hope that he can turn around the international bond traders’ beleaguered view of our economy.

Wheat

Wheat continues to move in extremely large, volatile patterns. Monday the market opened £10 up after the Crimea bridge strike, which was a 4 month high, before giving that move back the following day in the biggest daily loss for 3 months.

There is a huge amount of speculative money invested in these markets at the moment, given the uncertainty over other UK investments, like the £! The whole time we have this situation, volatility will continue.

In terms of the market fundamentals, (for what they are worth!), the current Supply & Demand is fairly balanced, although this is reliant on Russia and Ukraine. Russia, on the back of a record crop, have said this week they would consider lifting export quotas for this season but how safe the grain corridor is now with escalation of bombing is a concern. The main potential downside to the market is the impact of a recession on demand.

Closer to home, farm sales are slow but then there is no consumer buying now with compounders covered until January. This has suited farmers who have been very much on their tractors this past few weeks with a perfect mix of moisture and sunshine following a perfect harvest window! This does mean that we still have this artificial larger carry into January.

Soya

Soya is steadily easing now as the US harvest progresses giving a long term bearish view. South American are talking about a crop for this coming season 21% higher than last year, and this current US crop is expected to be circa 124 MlnT, around 4 MlnT higher than last year.

Organic

Organic cereal offers are beginning to come more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. We have seen around a £20 per tonne drop from first offers back in July time although again, there are concerns over the stability of supply from some Black Sea areas so we would view this as an opportunity!

Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment, supply seems more than adequate. There are still rumblings of issue with some Indian certification bodies but these do not seem to be impacting price at the moment because of the levels of stock being held across the UK and Europe.

And Finally…

Mice are vermin – right?

Fine wines mature with age, although my palate cannot appreciate the difference! Does chocolate improve All of us involved in poultry would regard mice as vermin, and they need to be despatched before they chew through cables, wood etc. Apparently some people do not think that mice are vermin, including one Vegan, who is in trouble with her District Council.

Margaret Manzoni, considered her mice as her pets. Her neighbours complained that their houses were over-run with mice, but the `ethical vegan’ (?) defence was that the mice would not go to her neighbours, because `she looked after them’!

She was given an environmental order to prevent the infestation, and stop feeding wild birds and clear up her garden. Failure to comply now means that she has been fined £1500 + £800 of costs.

Being a Vegan is even harder than I had previously thought, so that is another reason not to follow that particular path.