Wheat
Wheat spent the first half of the week moving higher after Russian airstrikes along the Danube took out one of the other sources of export for Ukraine, potentially putting 10 MlnT worth of grain at risk. In the same week however, the IGC has also raised global grain figures for this coming season by 5 MlnT, mostly off the back of maize as both wheat and barley figures were actually reduced. This has meant grain prices have largely ended the week back where they started.
Closer to home we have seen some combine action, mostly for rape and barley but wet weather will cause delays and potentially impact quality if it continues into August making this market still extremely volatile and hard to call.
Soya
Soya prices followed grains higher this week but unlike grain, has held there. There is real concern about the drought impact on crops now in the US and how this will now affect pod setting over the next 4-5 weeks. Longer term the view is still bearish with a large South American crop expected but until we know more about the US crop development, prices are likely to remain supported.
Organic
Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. The premiums for organic at these origins though are low compared with conventional which would suggest that some parcels may start to be shipped as conventional because it is simply just not worth the hassle, and this then tends to be the catalyst for prices starting to move upwards.
Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through and plan shipments to the UK for the later part of the year but premiums are still quite high and do not quite tip the favour back to Indian now that most mills have had to make the choice to switch to Chinese.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
