Wheat
The market is generally weaker this week but still lacking any real direction. Prices did break below the £190 range on futures which we had been stuck in really since May but they soon moved back to that £190 line.
The WASDE report this month was as expected, reducing overall wheat production figures by 3 MlnT to 793 MlnT but this is still higher than the 22/23 figure of 789 MlnT. The report left Russian and Ukraine export figures unchanged, (surprising given the percentage of that 10 MlnT which came via the now closed corridor), EU and US crops were reduced as expected but the UK stayed around the 15.5 MlnT figure.
Currently UK wheat is around £10 too expensive for export, which given the varied quality could help pressure feed wheat prices but not by much, and not for too long.
Maize figures were also reduced in the report but this again, reduced down to 1213 MlnT but still significantly up from last years crop of 1151 MlnT.
Soya
Soya prices have finally moved lower over the past 2 weeks back to where they were pre the last grain rally after the Danube bombings. Nearby US weather is continuing to improve and pod development is going well. Further ahead though the potential of a 163.5 MlnT South American crop will keep prices in check.
Organic
Organic grain has just moved up slightly from the bottom we have been trading at over the past few weeks as expected. There are reservations about how easy shipping will be in this area now that the safety net of the grain corridor has been removed.
Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through and plan shipments to the UK for the later part of the year but premiums are still quite high and do not quite tip the favour back to Indian now that most mills have had to make the choice to switch to Chinese.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
